House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi continues to insist that Democrats can pick up 17 seats in the November to retake control of the House. She also insists that fallout from ObamaCare will not hurt Democrats this fall. Setting aside that delusion, the Democrats’ chief problem isn’t ObamaCare. It’s math.

There are 188 House seats that at least lean Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report. To win a majority, then, Democrats have to win all of these seats and win 30 seats that lean Republican. That’s a tall order in any election cycle. Unless President Obama’s approval ratings climb in the coming months, it is all but impossible.

Now, just because a congressional district is rated “R” or “D” doesn’t itself preclude a candidate from the opposite party winning an election. Elections often turn on the strengths of individual candidates. The challenge for Democrats, though, is there are few Republicans in Democrat-leaning districts. Just 5 Republicans represent districts that lean Democrat. Three Republicans represent districts that are evenly split between the parties.

Democrats, however, hold 14 congressional seats that lean Republican. They hold 5 seats that are considered “even.” Is it likely that elections in the middle of President Obama’s second term will create a wave that allow Democrats to win a host of Republican-leaning districts?

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