Over at Talking Points Memo, Dylan Scott has a reported piece speculating that if Republicans take over the U.S. Senate this fall, they could pass a repeal of the employer mandate — and President Obama just might sign it.

Scott’s piece raise some good points as to why this would be plausible, but there are several reasons I’m not so sure.

To start, it isn’t clear that Republicans would want to pass an isolated repeal of the employer mandate. Ever since Obama acted unilaterally to delay the employer mandate, Republicans have adopted the populist argument that if businesses are given a break from the requirement, then the same leeway must be extended to individuals. So, while it certainly wouldn’t be a shock for a political party to prove inconsistent, this messaging issue is at least a complicating factor.

There is also another conservative theory that repealing individual provisions of Obamacare can undermine the coalition behind the broader repeal-and-replace effort. In this case, giving employers a break would mean that a lot of businesses currently fighting the law may head to the sidelines.

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