Based on the last year of President Obama’s negative campaigning and making all Republicans out to be the American enemy, political strategist Dick Morris is predicting that Democrats are going to take a November beating at the voting booth. According to Morris: “Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years.”
Morris claims that the writing is on the wall for Obama and his blue-state compatriots due to his failure to take Mitt Romney seriously as a contender. Morris says that Obama spent so much time painting Romney as being a “monster,” that once real Americans got to experience the real Romney in the first national debate, the entire façade was exposed. Immediately after, Romney began gaining southern swing states, soon to be followed by several northern ones—with Ohio and Pennsylvania looking less and less blue with every passing day. The “Romney momentum,” as Morris refers to it, appears to him to be insurmountable—not only for Obama, but also for several key senate races. Morris is also predicting a congressional switch, from a Democrat-led Senate to a Republican-led one. He writes: “The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite.”
While he makes a compelling case, I have a difficult time sharing Morris’s optimism. I do not share his trust of the public polling data, which is primarily what he bases his predictions on. I have little problem believing that the Obama campaign has all but destroyed its hopes for reelection, but I have a harder time believing that the Senate contests will be as decisive as Morris says. I would like to believe that the Republicans can carry a Senate majority, but anything short of 60 is not enough to break a filibuster anyway, which is most likely what it would take to bring repealing Obamacare to a vote.